2004 Election
Overview
George
W. Bush (I)Republican28662,039,073
John
F. KerryDemocratic25159,027,478
(2004
1)
George W. Bush |
John
F. Kerry
|
Electoral
votes
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Popular
vote |
%
|
Popular
vote |
%
|
R
|
D
|
|
1,176,394
|
62.5%
|
693,933
|
36.8%
|
9
|
||
190,889
|
61.1
|
111,025
|
35.5
|
3
|
||
1,104,294
|
54.9
|
893,524
|
44.4
|
10
|
||
572,898
|
54.4
|
469,953
|
44.5
|
6
|
||
5,509,826
|
44.4
|
6,745,485
|
54.3
|
55
|
||
1,101,255
|
51.7
|
1,001,732
|
47.0
|
9
|
||
693,826
|
43.9
|
857,488
|
54.3
|
7
|
||
171,660
|
45.8
|
200,152
|
53.3
|
3
|
||
District
of Columbia
|
21,256
|
09.3
|
202,970
|
89.2
|
3
|
|
3,964,522
|
52.1
|
3,583,544
|
47.1
|
27
|
||
1,914,254
|
58.0
|
1,366,149
|
41.4
|
15
|
||
194,191
|
45.3
|
231,708
|
54.0
|
4
|
||
409,235
|
68.4
|
181,098
|
30.3
|
4
|
||
2,345,946
|
44.5
|
2,891,550
|
54.8
|
21
|
||
1,479,438
|
59.9
|
969,011
|
39.3
|
11
|
||
751,957
|
49.9
|
741,898
|
49.3
|
7
|
||
736,456
|
62.0
|
434,993
|
36.6
|
6
|
||
1,069,439
|
59.5
|
712,733
|
39.7
|
8
|
||
1,102,169
|
56.7
|
820,299
|
42.2
|
9
|
||
330,201
|
44.6
|
396,842
|
53.6
|
4
|
||
1,024,703
|
43.0
|
1,334,493
|
56.0
|
10
|
||
1,071,109
|
36.9
|
1,803,800
|
62.0
|
12
|
||
2,313,746
|
47.8
|
2,479,183
|
51.2
|
17
|
||
1,346,695
|
48.0
|
1,445,014
|
51.5
|
91
|
||
672,660
|
59.1
|
457,766
|
40.1
|
6
|
||
1,455,713
|
53.3
|
1,259,171
|
46.1
|
11
|
||
266,063
|
59.1
|
173,710
|
38.6
|
3
|
||
512,814
|
66.0
|
254,328
|
32.7
|
5
|
||
418,690
|
50.7
|
397,190
|
48.1
|
5
|
||
331,237
|
49.0
|
340,511
|
50.4
|
4
|
||
1,670,003
|
46.2
|
1,911,430
|
53.0
|
15
|
||
376,930
|
49.8
|
370,942
|
49.0
|
5
|
||
2,962,567
|
40.1
|
4,314,280
|
58.4
|
31
|
||
1,961,166
|
56.1
|
1,525,849
|
43.6
|
15
|
||
196,651
|
62.9
|
111,052
|
35.5
|
3
|
||
2,859,764
|
50.8
|
2,741,165
|
48.7
|
20
|
||
959,792
|
65.6
|
503,966
|
34.4
|
7
|
||
866,831
|
47.4
|
943,163
|
51.6
|
7
|
||
2,793,847
|
48.5
|
2,938,095
|
51.0
|
21
|
||
169,046
|
38.7
|
259,760
|
59.4
|
4
|
||
937,974
|
58.1
|
661,699
|
41.0
|
8
|
||
232,584
|
59.9
|
149,244
|
38.4
|
3
|
||
1,384,375
|
56.9
|
1,036,477
|
42.6
|
11
|
||
4,526,917
|
61.1
|
2,832,704
|
38.2
|
34
|
||
663,742
|
72.7
|
241,199
|
26.4
|
5
|
||
121,180
|
38.8
|
184,067
|
58.9
|
3
|
||
1,716,959
|
53.8
|
1,454,742
|
45.6
|
13
|
||
1,304,894
|
45.6
|
1,510,201
|
52.8
|
11
|
||
423,778
|
56.1
|
326,541
|
43.2
|
5
|
||
1,478,120
|
49.4
|
1,489,504
|
49.7
|
10
|
||
167,629
|
69.0
|
70,776
|
29.1
|
3
|
||
Total
|
62,028,285
|
50.7
|
59,028,109
|
48.3
|
286
|
251
|
NOTE:
Total electoral votes = 538. Total electoral votes needed to win =
270. Percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding and other
candidates.
1.
One Minnesota electoral vote was cast for John Edwards.
Source:
Figures are from the Federal Election Commission, 2004 Official
Presidential Election Results, Feb. 11, 2005.
Voting
age population (United States Election Project for Nov. 2004):
221,256,931
Estimated number of voters in the 2004 election was 122,294,978 (Presidential 1-2).
Estimated number of voters in the 2004 election was 122,294,978 (Presidential 1-2).
Simply
put, Bush won the 2004 presidential election because he improved his
share of the vote in a wide range of states. It was not a distinct
surge in the Bible Belt or Midwest or any other socially conservative
region that put the Republican ticket over the top. The overwhelming
pattern is one of stasis. The geographic basis of the vote in 2004
closely replicated patterns exhibited in the 2000 election. …
In
the midst of great stability, even small changes can have important
consequences. For example, reapportionment after the 2000 election
helped Bush in an important way. The newly distributed Electoral
College vote gave more weight to the Republican South and West, less
to the Democratic Northeast and Midwest. As a result, many of the
states Bush won in 2000 became worth more electoral votes in 2004.
The 271 electoral votes Bush collected in 2000 were worth 278
electoral votes in 2004, a gain of seven before the 2004 campaign
even began.
In
addition to this initial advantage, Bush managed to win two new
states in 2004 while only losing one that he had captured in 2000.
The one state he lost – New Hampshire – was worth just four
electoral votes. The two new states he won – Iowa and New Mexico –
combined for 15 electoral votes.
…
I
posit that women were the key swing constituency. Exit polls show the
gender gap at just three points in 2004, less than half of what it
was in 2000. Men actually voted for Kerry as much or more than they
had for Gore, but women swung decidedly to Bush compared to 2000.
More
specifically, married white women are almost entirely responsible for
the change in the Bush vote. White women split equally between the
major party candidates in 2000, and had favored the Democrats by five
points in 1996. But in 2004 exit polls show that they reversed
course, voting for Bush 55-44. As 36% of the voters in 2004, white
women's five point swing could theoretically be responsible for most
of Bush's gain (5 points x 36 percent [approximately equal to] 1.8
points). Married women showed a similar shift to the Republicans.
They voted 46-48 against Bush in 2000 but 55-44 for Bush in 2004
(Burden 1-3).
Election
day started with a shock wave through the campaigns and the media.
According to exit polls, the President was doing poorly, even in
strong Republican states such as Mississippi and South Carolina.
Although they could not yet share their findings publicly, it was
clear the media were bracing for a major upset. Bush’s chief
strategist, Karl Rove, however, was convinced the methodology of the
exit polls had to be wrong and, in the end, he was correct. The
election would come down to the swing states of Iowa, New Mexico,
Nevada, and Ohio. Though they were close, the Bush team became
convinced they had won all four and, with them, the presidency. At
about four in the morning, however, rumors began circulating that
Kerry and Edwards would file a lawsuit over the results in Ohio.
Provisional ballots had not been counted in the state by the end of
election night, leaving the results in some doubt. Consequently, Bush
chose not to declare victory and again denied his supporters,
gathered near the White House, a chance to celebrate. Bush sent Chief
of Staff Andy Card to explain: “President Bush decided to give
Senator Kerry the respect of more time to reflect on the results of
this election. We are convinced that President Bush has won
reelection with at least 286 electoral votes.” Kerry called the
next morning to concede.
In
the end, Bush won 286 Electoral College votes to Kerry’s 251, along
with 50.73 percent of the popular vote. Having lost the popular vote
in 2000, this majority, bare though it was, added some popular
legitimacy to the Bush presidency and gave him the confidence to
focus on his domestic policy goals. Bush declared that he had earned
political capital from the campaign and now he intended to spend it
(Gregg II 9).
Bush’s
First Four Years (Viewed September 2004)
President
Bush’s bold political achievements have not been matched by clear
progress on the problems the nation faced.Taking
the war on terrorism to Afghanistan and Iraq has proven much more
problematic than anticipated. While the Taliban regime and Al Qaeda
were quickly routed in Afghanistan, Osama Bin Laden escaped in Tora
Bora, and remnants of both groups continue to operate in Afghanistan
and western Pakistan. A rapid military victory in Iraq was followed
by an unanticipated and lethal insurgency, producing much bloodshed,
chaos, insecurity, and delays in restoring essential services and a
functioning economy. The Administration is vulnerable on its primary
rationale for the war (WMDs and Saddam Hussein’s links to Al
Qaeda, both rebutted by evidence), inadequate planning to win the
peace, and incompetent management of postwar operations. Most
Americans now believe the costs of the war in Iraq exceed the
benefits, and that we are more, not less, vulnerable to terrorism as
a consequence of it.
The
extraordinary stimulus from a series of tax cuts, major spending
increases, and an accommodative monetary policy has not produced the
expected robust economic recovery from the 2001 recession. The
economy has produced fewer jobs than it has lost since January 2001,
wage gains have been stagnant, and high health care and energy costs
have squeezed middle-class households. Moreover, federal budget
surpluses generated at the end of the Clinton administration have
turned into huge deficits almost certain to extend into the baby
boomer retirement years.
The
President’s signature domestic policy achievements-the No Child
Left Behind education law and the Medicare prescription drug
bill-have both generated more skepticism and complaints than
political reward.
Finally,
the President’s promise to a “uniter, not a divider” has proven
empty. If anything, our political culture has become more, not less,
coarse since he took office (Mann 2-3).
Works
cited:
Burden, Barry C., “An Alternative Account of the 2004 Presidential Election.” The Forum. November 15, 2004. Web. http://www.uvm.edu/~dguber/POLS125/articles/burden.htm
Gregg II, Gary L. “George W. Bush: Campaigns and Elections.” University of Virginia. Web. https://millercenter.org/president/gwbush/campaigns-and-elections
Mann,
Thomas E., “Campaigning and Governing: The 2004 Elections and Their
Aftermath.”Brookings,
September 13, 2004. Web.
https://www.brookings.edu/on-the-record/campaigning-and-governing-the-2004-elections-and-their-aftermath/
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